Short-term Earthquake Prediction Based on Seismic Precursory Electric Signals Recorded on Ground Surface.
ANNOUNCEMENT (May 25th, 2010)
The current project was initiated privately by a group of people of various professional specializations, who are interested in earthquake prediction by the use of preseismic electric signals. The latter was in turn initiated too by the large debate (decade of 1980 – 1990) between the seismology community (which was skeptical about the preseismic electric signals) on one hand and the VAN group (which proposed the existence and use of the preseismic electric signals) on the other.
We have already completed 7 years of uninterrupted (with the exception of some short intervals) monitoring of the Earth’s electric field. In detail, during this six year’s period of time the Earth's electric field was monitored at the corresponding locations as follows:
Athens: ATH monitoring site: 2003 – 2010
Pyrgos: PYR monitoring site: 2003 – 2010
Hios: HIO monitoring site: 2006 – 2009
During this period of time the collected data were analyzed by developed methods and software that enable to calculate the three basic parameters, location, magnitude and time, of a large EQ in terms of short-term prediction. Furthermore, it was shown that the Earth’s electric field contains valuable informative features which evolve prior to the occurrence of a large EQ. The specific details were presented in a monograph under the title “Short-term Earthquake Prediction” (2007), in presented papers and in the site:
For the utilization of this experiment much of technical work was offered by scientists, electronic engineers, and people who wanted to help this type of scientific research. However, as the network expanded so its maintenance problems increased while the Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF) decreased. This was mainly caused due to the used hardware and lack of funds.
Therefore, we decided to suspend the operation of the network (actually it stopped for a few months on September 11th 2009) and to reorganize it at a more professional level. In the mean time we will have the opportunity to investigate some new ideas and apply them on the already collected data of the 6 year’s period. The corresponding results, as usually, will be placed at the Cornell’s University data base.
The new establishment will require appropriate funding (till now we financially contributed its operation but we cannot afford its expansion) and collaboration with other Research Institutes so that a high standards experimental setup will be established.
Details for the future establishment are as follows:
a. set-up of a monitoring network which will consist of 9 monitoring sites all over Greece.
For details visit the corresponding section of the present web-site.
b. during its operation, data will be stored in a central open data base accessible to all
scientists and to any one being interested in earthquake prediction.
c. application of the data processing methodologies already presented in the "Short-term
earthquake prediction" monograph.
d. presentation of the research results in scientific meetings, scientific journals and internet.
e. development of more sophisticated needed software.
f. development and testing of more advanced methodologies aiming towards short-term earthquake
g. the program must last for at least 6 years (network installation - full operationable period) due to the
fact that large EQs do occur in Greece at an average of 1 EQ (Ms>6R) per year.
Research groups that are interested to participate in this program do contact Dr. Thanassoulas.
On behalf of the research group
Dr. Thanassoulas, C.
contact e-mail: email@example.com